The president of the United States, Joe Biden, already responded at the beginning of February with a resounding "no" to the request for Zelensky of the shipment of F-16 fighters, which are American-made. But the president of Ukraine has insisted It should be noted that in the past the West refused to hand over sophisticated weapons to Ukraine, but then he gave in until finally announcing the shipment of the rocket launchers HIMARSthe systems patriot and the aforementioned tanks. Now, there are European countries that have begun to qualify their initial refusal related to the last Ukrainian request.
LOOK: Zelensky asks for combat planes to end the war sooner
At the bottom of these doubts of the Europeans and the United States is the fear of getting involved in a direct escalation with Russia.
In this context, both the Government of Ukraine as the experts agree that Russia prepares a major offensive for late winter or early spring, with the aim of conquering the entire Donbas region, where its troops have a partial presence and where Kiev has also waged a strong offensive led its forces to recover some important territories such as Kherson.
Besides…
This is the F-16 fighter
-F-16 fighters have a flight range of more than 4,000 kilometerswhich would allow Ukraine to operate it far beyond its borders.
-Can be loaded with bombs and homing missiles, and It is capable of flying at 2,400 km/haccording to the United States Air Force.
-Ukraine wants the F-16 Fighting Falconthe single-engine fighter developed in the 1970s by General Dynamics and the United States Air Force.
-The F-16 was built following an agreement between the United States and four NATO countries.: Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway, later joined by Portugal. Thus, the combat planes are assembled from components manufactured in the six countries.
-According to its manufacturer, there are currently more than 3,000 F-16 fighters in service in 25 countries. In addition, they continue to be produced for export at a factory in South Carolina.
“We need artillery weapons, ammunition, modern tanks, long-range missiles, and modern fighter planes,” said Zelensky on Thursday during a speech at the European Council. He added that the security of Ukraine is also the security of Europe.
"We have to enhance the dynamics of our cooperation" and act "faster than the aggressor", he insisted.
Zelensky said that in the last year “horrible” Europe made strong decisions despite doubts and discussions.
“This security cooperation has created a historic example for any aggressor,” said Zelensky. "Our brave soldiers are fighting Russia's terror with your support."
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The HIMARS system delivered by the United States to Ukraine. (AFP).
The president of Ukraine He also announced that he will have several bilateral meetings in Brussels to discuss the issue of supplying combat aircraft to Ukraine.
“I am very inspired by your statements that Europe will be with us until our victory. I have heard it from various European leaders and I am very grateful to them for this."said Zelensky.
The spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force,
Yuriy Ihnat assured that his country needs up to 200 multipurpose combat aircraft (such as the F-16) to defend its airspace.
In contrast to the categorical refusal of the United States, the Netherlands has not ruled out giving up some of its F-16 fighters, as it plans to replace them with F-35s, according to the AFP agency.
For its part, the UK government promised this week to train Ukrainian fighter pilots “according to NATO standards” and called on the British military to look into possible aircraft deliveries, though it warned that this could only be an option “at long term".
british prime minister Rishi Sunakwho on Wednesday received Zelensky in London, noted that it takes three years to train a Typhoon fighter jet pilot from scratch, to which Zelensky replied: “I didn't even know it takes three years to train such a pilot. You know, come on, we'll send you pilots who have already trained for two and a half years."
French President Emmanuel Macron, who received Zelensky in Paris, assured that “nothing is ruled out”.
Opinion
The big question is what will happen if Ukraine defeats Russia with Western weapons
Francisco Belaunde Matossian, international analyst
Since the start of the war, Westerners have been reluctant to send certain types of weapons to Ukraine because of the risk that the war could expand and lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. However, little by little they have given in and have delivered sophisticated material. This in view of the fact that the Ukrainians were resisting and did not fall in a few days, as Moscow had predicted.
So, HIMARS systems arrived of great precision, which have served a lot to Ukraine. Then The United States announced the shipment of the Patriots and then The West decided to send the tanks that Ukraine requested.
Little by little, the level of weapons delivered to Ukraine. Now they ask for heavy armor.
There is fear of an escalation with Russia, but this has not occurred. The atomic threat has already been put aside by Russia because he saw that it did not seem very credible, but the risk is always there.
In addition, Russia's warnings weigh less and less when it comes to making decisions, although there are still some red lines marked by the West. For example, now that it is delivering longer-range bombs, the United States does not want its weapons to be used on Russian soil. But these can be used in crimeawhich has been annexed by Russia but internationally remains Ukrainian territory.
The most dangerous thing in the medium term is knowing what will happen if Russia is totally defeated by Ukraine thanks to western weapons. It could be a humiliating situation. In addition, Putin is surrounded by a series of ultranationalist characters and it is not known how they will react, that is the main concern.
The reasons of the West
for the analyst Enrique Banusdirector of the Institute of European Studies of the University of Piura, Russia's warnings and threats will not count much for the decision to deliver more weapons to Ukraine.
"In the previous phase of the war we have already had a similar situation, it happened with the tanks, there was even some bravado from Russia when it said that they were going to be destroyed immediately, and finally it was decided to hand them over," Banús said in a dialogue. with Trade.
As for Europe's reluctance after this latest request for ZelenskyBanús believes that "there is concern that at some point it will be considered that Western countries have already gone to war (with Russia)."
"There must also be a certain push and pull, otherwise Zelensky You will be asking for more and more. He just got the tanks due to his insistence, and immediately started asking for the planes and long range artillery, I think the westerners are trying to slow down the times. Now it's another tug of war”, says Banús.
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The German Leopard 2 tank coming to Ukraine. (AFP).
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America's Abrams tank coming to Ukraine. (AFP).
banus it considers as a remote possibility that the Ukrainians attack Russian territory with the weapons that the West gives them. "If it happened, it would mean one more step of a very deep draft, very strong, but I consider it unlikely".
“Western countries will insist a lot on Zelensky so that this does not happen. What does want to attack Ukraine it is the rear, the places from where Russia is bombing. As long as the attack is limited to reducing the effectiveness of the Russian platforms, it is an action of war. I think that Zelensky he will measure his steps well, because he needs to calculate what he is doing so as not to lose the growing support he is having”.
banus He maintains that Western countries are realizing that the Russian advance in the east is being very slow, and says that some Western sources believe that it has to do with problems with war material. "Russia is experiencing ammunition shortages, apart from the disastrous state of the army that we already know about"points out.
About the warnings of Russia Related to an escalation, Banús says that they must be taken with the precaution of the case, and that with the gradual delivery of weapons, the effective reaction of Russia will be seen. "It will be seen if there really is Russia's ability to do what Putin threatens."
At this point in the possible escalation of the war, a CNN network analysis concludes that no NATO member is close to war with Russia, according to any internationally accepted legal definition.
"A war would require attacks carried out by US or NATO forces, in uniform, attacking from NATO territory against Russian forces, Russian territory or the Russian population."William Alberque of the International Institute for Strategic Studies told CNN.
"Any fight of Ukrainewith any conventional weapon, against any Russian force, this is not a US/NATO war in Ukraine, no matter how much Russia wants to claim that it is," added.
Why is it important for Ukraine to have fighters?
According to experts consulted by the AFP agency, the Western combat planes would make it possible to deal heavy blows to Russian troops and deter Russian bombers from attacking Ukrainian territory. “But, by themselves, they would not constitute a silver bullet military solution. In addition, all models could not be used in Ukraine”.
"The Typhoon and the F-16 are not suited to the rudimentary airbases the Ukrainians use to avoid attracting Russian missile barrages," said Justin Bronk, a military expert at Britain's RUSI think tank.
Handing over the Typhoons would be "almost purely symbolic and would not serve the interests of the Ukrainian air force," Bronk said.
Needs Ukraine Western-designed fighter jets? Retired Spanish admiral Juan Rodríguez Garat wrote in the Discussion portal that Ukraine It does need the fighters it asks for, because it is difficult to get much use out of the Russian planes it has, whose logistics chain ends in its enemy's factories, in this war.
But he adds that since the start of the war there have been practically no air operations. Firstly, because Ukraine does not have the means to prevail in the air, and secondly, because the russian aviation“perhaps daunted by the low-level missiles that have reached the Ukrainian Army by the thousands, possibly weighed down by the limited avionics of its aircraft and apparently unable to fight from safer heights due to the lack of precision weapons, does not even seem to have tried to take advantage of their tremendous numerical superiority.
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The Armed Forces of Ukraine and Russia at the start of the war in February 2022. (AFP).